WMT Earnings Intelligence

FY2026 Q4 · Feb 19, 2026 · Bull vs Bear Validation

MONITORING

⏰ Next Check

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Initializing scheduler...

📅 Earnings Window

        Release: 4:00 AM PT / 6:00 AM CT · Call: 7:00 AM CT
      

        Market open: 9:30 AM ET
      

Cron Schedule

0 6 19 2 * (PT)

        + poll every 5min post-release
      

🐂 BULL CASE

45% PROBABILITY

$148

+17%

End 2026

$178

+41%

End 2027

?

Q4 EPS beats $0.73+
Strong holiday quarter, e-commerce profitability expands
?

FY27 OI guidance ≥10%
Management signals confidence in ad + membership compounding
?

Comp sales ≥4.5%
Consumer spending momentum continues into FY27
?

Walmart Connect growth >30%
Ad flywheel continues; VIZIO integration firing
?

PhonePe IPO timeline confirmed
Mid-2026 listing at ~$15B unlocks $9.5B Walmart stake value

🐻 BEAR CASE

25% PROBABILITY

$108

-15%

End 2026

$118

-7%

End 2027

?

FY27 guidance misses Street
Conservative 4–6% OI guidance vs 11% consensus → sell-off
?

45x P/E compression
Macro slowdown forces multiple de-rating to 35–38x
?

Tariff margin headwinds
China/Mexico exposure squeezes gross margins in H1 FY27
?

Repeat of Q4 FY25 pattern
Beat on Q4 but conservative outlook → -6.5% day-one selloff
?

Consumer spending cools
Mid/upper income households pull back; comp deceleration

📊 Live Criteria Validation

PENDING

EPS vs $0.73 estimate

Awaiting release...

PENDING

Revenue vs $190.4B est.

Awaiting release...

PENDING

US Comp Sales (est. 4.1–4.5%)

Awaiting release...

PENDING

Operating Income Growth

Est. ~10% YoY

PENDING

FY27 OI Guidance

Street expects ~11%

PENDING

Walmart Connect Growth

Est. >30% YoY

📈 Price Target Scenarios

Scenario	Today Est.	End 2026	End 2027	P/E Basis (FY27)	Probability	Key Thesis
🐂 Super Bull	+6–9%	$158–165	$195–210	50–52x	15%	Blowout Q4 + FY27 OI >12% guide. PhonePe IPO drives re-rating. Ads reach $10B+
🐂 Bull	+3–6%	$140–150	$170–185	46–48x	30%	Beat + FY27 guidance in-line with Street. Multi-lever story confirms. Stock reclaims ATH
➡️ Base	Flat–+2%	$128–135	$148–162	43–45x	30%	Modest beat, conservative FY27 guidance 6–8% OI. Multiple stable. Ads + Sam's carry the year
🐻 Bear	-4–7%	$110–120	$118–130	36–38x	20%	Q4 FY25 repeat. FY27 guide disappoints. Tariff fear + multiple compression. New CEO caution
🐻 Deep Bear	-8–12%	$95–108	$100–115	32–35x	5%	Miss on EPS + revenue + weak guidance. Consumer pullback signals recession. Valuation reset to historical norms

💡 Growth Lever Scorecard

🎯

Walmart Connect

$5–6B FY26 · Growing 30–53% YoY

~1/3 of operating income. Track toward $10B+ by FY28. Near-100% gross margin business. Amazon-playbook but earlier inning.

📺

VIZIO / CTV Ads

~+20pts incremental ad growth

SmartCast OS turns 18M+ TV households into closed-loop ad inventory. First-party data moat competitors can't replicate.

🛒

Marketplace + WFS

200K+ sellers · WFS +44% YoY

Double-dip: marketplace fee + ad revenue per seller. Network effect compounds. Fulfillment density drives ad ROI.

🇮🇳

PhonePe IPO

$15B target · 72% stake · Mid-2026

Walmart's ~63% post-IPO stake = ~$9.5B value. Currently receives no P/E credit. Listing catalyst = re-rating event. 9.8B txns/mo, 45% UPI share.

🏪

Sam's Club

Membership +7.1% · eComm +22%

Approaching Costco-like unit economics. Renewal rates at all-time highs. Scan & Go adoption expanding margin profile significantly.

🚚

GoLocal / LocalFinds

DoorDash ($50B TAM) disruptor

4,700 stores as dark fulfillment hubs. Can subsidize delivery via ad revenue — same model that's killing Instacart's valuation (peak $39B → ~$8B).

🏦 Wall Street Analyst Price Targets (Pre-Earnings)

RBC Capital Outperform $140

BTIG Buy $140

Wells Fargo Overweight $140

Telsey Outperform $135

KeyBanc Overweight $145

Avg Target Strong Buy $140

      Note: Targets pre-earnings. Post-results upgrades likely if guidance beats. Current price ~$126–127 (down ~6% from $134.49 ATH).
    

🖥 Scheduler Log

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